Yesterday, CNN reported that next year, Toyota should pass General Motors as the world’s biggest auto manufacturer.

When I read that, it made me think back to some of the themes in Who Killed the Electric Car? and wonder how much of the current situation is due to decisions made by both General Motors and Toyota 15+ years ago.

For those who haven’t seen the movie (I’d definitely recommend it if you haven’t), here is the basic background:

• In 1990, the California Air Resource Board (CARB) passed a mandate declaring that by 1998, 2% of all new cars sold by the seven major auto manufacturers in the state of California were to meet ‘zero emission’ standards.
• In response, General Motors developed the EV1, the first production electric vehicle produced and sold by a major auto manufacturer.
• At least according to the movie, the response to the EV-1 was phenomenonal. Individuals like Tom Hanks proudly trumpeted their new car.
• In 2003, the California Air Resource Board “removed the requirement for electric vehicles from the ZEV mandate”.
• GM cancelled the EV1 program soon after.
• As the leases on the EV1s expired, GM reclaimed the cars and destroyed them.

While that part of the story was interesting to me, the part that was even more interesting was the response of the Japanese auto manufacturers.

At least according to the movie, the Japanese auto manufacturers were terrified that the U.S. manufacturers would take this mandate to heart and would get an edge on clean cars. To that end, they launched their own research efforts culimating in the Toyota Prius — the car that has become the poster child for clean, fuel efficient vehicles in the United States.

Toyota has been riding the Prius (and now other hybrid models like the Camry and Highlander) to the bank.

The Prius has become known for its 6-month waiting list.
With the recent increases in gas prices and focus on the enviroment, all of the U.S.-based auto manufacturers have been running to hop on the band wagon to the point that Ford licensed the hybrid technology from Toyota.

In addition, if you look at any major auto advertisement nowadays, nearly every auto manufacturer is trumpeting their clean, fuel efficient cars. GM has launched their “Live Green, Go Yellow” campaign pushing the value of cars running on E85 fuel.

All of this makes me wonder, what would have happened if GM built off of their leadership position? The EV1 was the Prius before the Prius was the Prius. It had the same excitement and waiting list. It had the same monopoly on the green car market. It had celebrities out promoting the product and teaching everyone that it is cool to be green.

Imagine if GM had leveraged their leadership position to create a fleet of clean vehicles rather than just pumping more and more money into their SUV market (including the infamous fuel-guzzling, polluting, vanity vehicle called the Hummer). Would they have averted yesterday’s announcement?
I suppose that only time will tell, but it could very well be that GM has paid a significant price for not being green.